Muskogee, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

178
FXUS64 KTSA 142327
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
527 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

 - Fire weather concerns will remain heightened Friday and
   Saturday due to gusty winds behind dry frontal passages.

 - Several mostly dry cold fronts are expected during the next
   week, with below normal temperatures favored Saturday through
   Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Fire weather concerns highlight the forecast this afternoon, with
strong and gusty northwesterly winds and relative humidities
expected to fall into the 25 to 35 percent range behind the cold
front. The weather conditions will lead to widespread elevated to
locally near critical grassland fire spread rates through the
afternoon, all in combination with the persistently dry
conditions. A Wind Advisory has also been issued for the rest of
the day, given multiple Oklahoma Mesonet and ASOS sites recording
near to above 40 mph gusts late this morning. Wind speeds will
trend downward through the evening as the surface ridge
approaches, with light west to southwesterly winds returning to
parts of the area by daybreak Thursday. With good radiating
conditions overnight, expect temperatures to be noticeably cooler,
including some teens in parts of far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

With consistent northerly winds aloft, dry cold fronts remain
expected to move through the region every couple of days, with
gusty post-frontal winds signaling an uptick in fire weather
concerns. Friday remains likely to be one of these heightened fire
weather days, following a Thursday night cold frontal passage.
Northwesterly winds behind the front on Friday should be fairly
similar to today, with gusts near 40 mph especially along and
north of I-40. Afternoon relative humidities across much of
eastern Oklahoma will fall into the 20 to 30 percent range. Near
critical grassland fire spread rates are currently forecast west
of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma. Given the fuel states, a Red
Flag Warning may be necessary.

Another cold front will follow quickly on the heels of the
Thursday night/Friday one, set to move through Saturday with
another increase in northwesterly winds, continued low relative
humidities areawide and locally near critical fire weather
conditions possible. Below normal temperatures will prevail for
the weekend, despite a return to southwesterly winds on Sunday.

Yet another shot of cold air will move through the region Sunday
night and into Monday, with some model discrepancies regarding how
much of it will move into the area as opposed to a glancing blow
to the northeast.

Once we get toward the middle part of next week, more westerly
flow aloft looks to take hold, which would signal warmer
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period
for all sites. Breezy NNW winds decrease this evening, becoming
light and variable overnight. Winds shift Thursday morning,
becoming south-southwesterly 10-20 kts ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. Mostly clear skies forecast tonight, before
FEW to SCT mid/high clouds approach from the north Thursday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   24  54  35  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   24  51  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   24  54  36  54 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   20  53  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   19  48  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  45  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   22  52  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   20  48  32  47 /   0   0   0   0
F10   24  55  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   25  53  36  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ054>072.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43